Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Lucknow’s highest temperature on 7 July 2026 reaches 33°C at the Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport station. On Polymarket today, this contract trades with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, meaning the crowd is virtually certain the temperature will not hit that band. The market resolves in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where traders buy or sell shares based on their forecast of the official Wunderground record.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability sharply. July in Lucknow typically sees daily highs between 32°C and 39°C (91°F–103°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) [1]. The city’s hottest recorded day was 47.8°C on 12 June 2025, and recent June 2026 peaks reached 43.4°C (105.8°F) [2][4]. Given that 33°C sits at the lower end of July’s normal range, the 0% price suggests traders expect temperatures to stay well above this threshold, consistent with seasonal averages.

Traders should monitor the India Meteorological Department’s daily forecasts and any heatwave advisories for Uttar Pradesh, as these directly influence on-chain positioning. A recent Scroll.in report noted Lucknow hit 43.4°C on 5 July 2026, four degrees above normal, reinforcing expectations of sustained high heat [6]. Watch for updates on monsoon onset schedules, which could abruptly cool temperatures, and check Wunderground’s live feed before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes on 7 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.