Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market prices the chance of Los Angeles hitting any temperature above 81°F on 20 July 2026 at 0%, with the 80–81°F range locked in at 100% probability. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens for each temperature bracket, and the contract will settle automatically once Wunderground publishes the KLAX station’s daily peak.

Historically, mid-July in Los Angeles County sees highs near 29°C (84°F), yet the 2026 forecast for the county suggests highs around 29°C with lows near 19°C, aligning closely with the market’s 80–81°F consensus [2]. This mirrors the 4 July 2026 outcome, where the market correctly priced 74–75°F and resolved YES, showing that Polymarket’s temperature contracts often capture local microclimate nuances rather than regional averages [3]. The current 0% probability for higher ranges reflects confidence that KLAX, situated near the coast, will not breach typical coastal moderation even during a warm spell.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Los Angeles area and any sudden shifts in Pacific high-pressure systems that could push inland heat toward the airport. A key dependency is the timing of Wunderground’s daily update for KLAX, which typically posts by midday UTC; any delay could affect settlement clarity. Recent coverage of the July 4 resolution confirms that timely data feeds and clear station definitions are critical for accurate outcomes in weather markets [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.