Highest temperature in London on May 27?

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Market context

On 27 May 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles to whichever Celsius range contains that figure. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; Polymarket's pricing mechanism has simply not yet attracted meaningful liquidity or conviction toward any specific temperature band. USDC conditional tokens on Polygon remain undeployed at scale here, suggesting traders are either waiting for the settlement window to narrow or treating this as a low-priority contract relative to higher-volume weather markets.

Historical May temperatures at London City Airport show considerable variation. The station's records indicate May highs typically range from 18°C to 24°C, though outlier warm days occasionally push toward 26–28°C. The May 2022 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 27°C across London, whilst cooler Mays have settled in the low teens. This spread—roughly 10°C between typical floor and ceiling—means the eventual resolution will depend heavily on whether late May 2026 aligns with seasonal norms or deviates toward anomalous warmth or cold.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch UK Met Office seasonal outlooks as spring 2026 approaches, particularly any guidance on Atlantic pressure patterns and jet stream positioning. The Wunderground historical database will be the sole arbiter; accessing the London City Airport station (EGLC) directly avoids ambiguity over which weather station's reading applies. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 27 May, meaning the market closes before afternoon heating peaks, which could suppress final temperature readings relative to daily maxima recorded later in the day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.