Highest temperature in London on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market settles to whichever range contains that figure. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES across the board, a technical artefact reflecting the market's nascent state rather than genuine forecasting consensus. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical data for EGLC station, with traders required to toggle the temperature unit manually before comparing their bets to the recorded outcome.

London's June temperatures cluster around 20–23°C for daily highs, with extremes rarely breaching 28°C even during heat waves. The Met Office's 30-year average for mid-June sits near 21°C, though the city has recorded 32°C in June during anomalous warm spells—most recently in 2022. Historical volatility suggests the eventual settlement will fall somewhere between 16°C and 27°C depending on Atlantic weather patterns and high-pressure systems tracking across the UK in that week.

Traders should monitor the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and UK Met Office extended outlooks from early June onwards, as these 10–14 day forecasts typically narrow uncertainty around specific dates. Jet stream positioning and any blocking high-pressure systems will be the primary drivers; a northward-shifted jet favours cooler, unsettled conditions, whilst a southerly pattern allows warm continental air to reach southern England. The Polygon-based conditional token mechanics mean early liquidity providers face execution risk until the market gains depth, though USDC settlement remains straightforward once Wunderground data publishes on 16 June.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.