Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue, since historical weather data will definitively resolve this contract once the day passes and Wunderground records the observation. Traders holding conditional tokens representing any temperature band will receive USDC payouts proportional to whichever bracket contains the actual recorded high.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged between 18°C and 28°C at City Airport, with the airport's coastal location and urban heat island effects creating measurable variance from central London readings. The Met Office's long-term climate data shows June averages around 21–22°C, though heat waves can push daily highs into the low 30s. The 2022 heatwave saw London reach 40°C in July, establishing that extreme outliers remain possible during summer months, though June typically remains more moderate than July or August.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended forecast as June 2026 approaches, particularly any warnings for high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive temperatures upward. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 June, meaning the market resolves based on the full calendar day's peak temperature recorded by Wunderground's automated station. Any significant weather model shifts in the weeks preceding the date could shift conditional token valuations, though the current 0% pricing suggests the market may require liquidity injection before meaningful trading activity emerges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.