Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at the international airport station on 19 July 2026 falls into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, converting to Celsius via the platform's settings. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 0% across all outcome brackets, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine market conviction that no temperature will be recorded.

Historical data from Kuala Lumpur International Airport shows July temperatures typically peak between 32–34°C, with occasional spikes to 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's monsoon season (May–September) brings afternoon thunderstorms that often cap daily highs, though these rarely prevent temperatures from reaching the low-to-mid 30s beforehand. Comparable July days over the past decade have consistently settled in the 33–34°C range, providing a baseline for evaluating which outcome brackets hold genuine probability mass once trading activates.

Traders should monitor Malaysia's meteorological forecasts from late June onwards, particularly tracking any anomalous pressure systems or extended dry spells that could push temperatures above the historical median. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 19 July, meaning the highest temperature must be recorded before that deadline; afternoon storms arriving after the cutoff would not affect the final reading. Wunderground's data feed occasionally experiences delays, though historical records typically populate within 24 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.