Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is straightforward: NOAA will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius at Istanbul Airport on 4 July 2026, and the market settles based on whether that reading hits exactly 25°C. Currently, Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes a 25°C peak is virtually impossible for this date and location.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability clearly. Istanbul’s mean maximum on 4 July typically runs between 27°C and 29°C, rarely dipping below 25°C even in cooler years [2]. Daily highs in July generally climb from 82°F to 85°F (roughly 28°C to 29°C), rarely falling below 75°F (24°C) [1]. While Turkey recently recorded an all-time high of 50.5°C in Silopi during a July heatwave, that extreme occurred in the far southeast, not Istanbul [3][7]. Even with recent warming trends pushing Istanbul’s daily highs slightly higher, a 25°C peak remains well below the seasonal norm [4].

Traders should monitor upcoming NOAA data releases for Istanbul Airport and any regional heatwave announcements from Turkish meteorological services. The settlement depends entirely on the first published data point for 4 July 2026, so delays or early releases could shift liquidity [market description]. Recent reports confirm Turkey experienced its hottest July in 55 years, with average temperatures reaching 26.9°C, suggesting continued warmth across the region [9]. On-chain mechanics remain unchanged: USDC trades on Polygon using conditional tokens, with no resolution until the official NOAA “Temp” column data is published for the target date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.