Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport on 10 July 2026 will determine this market’s outcome, with the current crowd-implied probability of a specific YES range sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token settled in USDC on Polygon, where buyers speculate on precise Fahrenheit bands using on-chain liquidity pools rather than traditional odds.

Historical data shows Houston regularly hits extreme highs in mid-July, with 104°F recorded on 10 July 2022 at the same station, while July 2026 forecasts project daily highs between 85°F and 96°F, averaging 93°F [2][4]. The 0% probability suggests traders doubt any given range will materialise, yet past extremes indicate volatility that could rapidly shift pricing if a heat dome intensifies.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat dome updates and scattered thunderstorm forecasts for 10 July, as rain could suppress temperatures below 90°F, while prolonged clear skies may push highs toward 96°F or higher [8][10]. The settlement hinges on Wunderground’s final daily high for KHOU, so real-time adjustments to forecast models and local storm tracks will be the primary catalysts for price movement before the 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.