Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Market context

On 27 May 2026, Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their official Daily Extract dataset. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, reflecting the standard state of unresolved future-dated weather contracts before settlement data becomes available. Traders are effectively pricing in that the Hong Kong Observatory will publish a definitive figure once the day concludes and meteorological records are finalised.

Hong Kong's May temperatures historically cluster between 28–32°C, though extremes have reached 34°C on particularly warm days during late spring. The Observatory's historical daily maximum dataset shows May typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the city transitions toward summer monsoon season. Previous years' May 27 readings offer limited direct precedent—weather varies considerably year-to-year—but the broader May distribution suggests most outcomes will fall within the upper-20s to low-30s Celsius range. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms should anchor reasonable expectations around this historical envelope.

The settlement mechanism depends entirely on the Hong Kong Observatory publishing finalised data in their Daily Extract records after 27 May. No announcements or forecasts will trigger early resolution; the contract remains unresolved until official meteorological records are locked in, typically within days of the observation date. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on secondary weather forecasts, as only their published absolute daily maximum figure will determine which temperature bracket resolves to YES and settles USDC on Polygon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.