Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 5?

Market context

On 5 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or that traders are awaiting historical data and seasonal forecasts to establish meaningful positions. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon season. Historical data shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any expectation of extreme cold; traders will likely begin positioning once seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory or regional meteorological services become available in late May 2026.

Key catalysts include the release of the Asian summer monsoon forecast (typically May), any tropical cyclone activity affecting the region in early June, and real-time weather updates from the Observatory itself. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 June, but final resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data, which may take several days. Traders should monitor the Observatory's historical temperature patterns and any announced weather warnings or heat advisories as June approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.