Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory has confirmed that June 2026 will feature above-normal temperatures, with daily highs expected to range between 33°C and 34°C, making a 0% YES probability on any extreme heat range highly questionable given the seasonal forecast[1][3]. Historical data from recent years shows that Hong Kong frequently records its hottest days in late June, with temperatures already hitting 34.6°C this year alone, triggering a Very Hot Weather Warning[6][7].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s daily extract releases for the “Absolute Daily Max” figure, as this is the sole resolution source for the contract, and watch for any escalation in the Very Hot Weather Warning to higher thresholds[7][8]. The seasonal forecast explicitly warns of abnormally high temperatures for 2026, suggesting that current market pricing may not fully account for the likelihood of record-breaking heat events in the coming days[3].

On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, meaning the 0% YES price reflects a crowd assumption that no extreme heat will occur, despite the Observatory’s own warnings of extreme heat expected Thursday and Friday[5][9]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 June 2026, so any delay in the Daily Extract publication could prevent resolution, a dependency traders must track closely[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.