Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract on the highest temperature in Hong Kong for 20 June is pricing **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which is a flat view for a market that settles against the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” reading, in one-decimal Celsius bands. That 0% implies traders see almost no chance the reported maximum lands in the YES range defined by the contract, even though the underlying event is simply the day’s top temperature, not an average or felt heat index.

For context, Hong Kong is in its hot season: the Observatory’s June-August 2026 seasonal outlook says temperatures are expected to be above normal, while tourism weather guides put typical June highs around 28–32°C and AccuWeather’s June forecast shows daily highs in the high 80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit, roughly 31–34°C.[2][1][3] The current price therefore looks anchored to the market’s exact strike rather than to a view that Hong Kong will be cool; on a conditional-tokens market, small shifts in the final published maximum can matter more than the general weather narrative.

The main catalysts a trader should watch are the Observatory’s morning and afternoon updates, the city’s heat and rain warnings, and whether cloud, showers or sea breeze keep the day’s maximum below the relevant bracket.[4][7] The market cannot settle until the Daily Extract is published, so the practical dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory’s final post-day data rather than live forecasts; if the maximum is later revised or finalised after the settlement window, that published figure is what drives resolution.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.