Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. That figure will determine which range bracket resolves YES on Polymarket. Currently, the contract trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either a data lag or settlement mechanics awaiting the actual observation date. Once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" reading in the Daily Extract dataset, the conditional token corresponding to the correct range will settle to $1 USDC on Polygon, with all other brackets expiring worthless.

Hong Kong's June climate is characterised by early monsoon influence and pre-typhoon season conditions. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes have reached 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for seasonal forecasts to materialise or treating this as a placeholder contract pending near-term weather modelling. Comparable June dates from recent years provide calibration: the Observatory's publicly available climate records show considerable year-on-year variation depending on whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate or monsoon troughs bring cooler, wetter conditions.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecast window as June 2026 approaches, particularly alerts regarding heat advisories or tropical cyclone activity that could suppress daytime temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 June, but actual data publication may lag by several days as the Observatory finalises its Daily Extract. No interim announcements or early forecasts will trigger resolution; only the official recorded maximum temperature counts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.