Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, reflecting the absence of historical data or meaningful price discovery this far ahead. Settlement depends on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract database, measured to one decimal place. Until that data materialises after the resolution window closes at noon UTC on the specified date, no conditional tokens will convert to USDC on Polygon.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 35°C, with historical extremes rarely breaching 36°C during this month. The 30-year climate record shows June averages around 29–30°C for daily highs, though heat waves pushing toward 34–35°C occur roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability reflects rational pricing: with eighteen months until settlement, no trader can meaningfully forecast a specific day's maximum temperature, and the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful bands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Hong Kong's seasonal weather patterns as June 2026 approaches. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that may shift expectations if anomalies emerge—El Niño or La Niña conditions, for instance, could influence regional temperature distributions. Nearer to settlement, standard meteorological forecasts from the Observatory and international models will become actionable, though even five-day forecasts carry substantial uncertainty for precise daily maxima.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.