Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature band resolving. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on the Observatory publishing its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset—a process that typically occurs within days of observation but occasionally delays by a week or more during data verification cycles.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C and frequently reach 32–34°C. Historical records from the Observatory show that mid-June temperatures cluster around 31–33°C on average, with extreme highs occasionally breaching 35°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing reflects not scepticism about whether a temperature will occur, but rather the market's current inability to price granular outcome bands—a common state for weather markets before settlement windows open and conditional token liquidity pools activate on Polygon.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts, typically issued fortnightly, and watch for any announced heat wave alerts in early June 2026. The El Niño or La Niña status heading into northern hemisphere summer will influence regional pressure patterns; recent updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center provide leading indicators. Liquidity and price discovery will likely remain dormant until late May, when traders begin positioning ahead of the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.