Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, which will fall into one of several predefined ranges. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES on Polygon, meaning traders are not yet allocating meaningful USDC liquidity to any single temperature band. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure, released after the day concludes and finalised in their Daily Extract dataset.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 33°C during this period. The Observatory's 30-year normal for mid-June shows average highs around 31°C, though individual days regularly exceed 33°C during heat waves or when the Southwest Monsoon intensifies. Extreme readings above 35°C are rare but not unprecedented; the territory's all-time June record stands at 36.1°C. The 0% pricing across all ranges reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological consensus—traders have yet to position conditional tokens ahead of the settlement window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the South China Sea monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-June, as both significantly influence Hong Kong's temperature profile. The China Meteorological Administration and Hong Kong Observatory issue seasonal outlooks in May that often signal whether June will trend warmer or cooler than climatological norms. Real-time positioning typically accelerates in the final week before settlement, when weather models converge on more reliable 10-day forecasts.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.