Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any outcome materialising. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure, recorded to one decimal place and published in their Daily Extract once finalised. Until that data appears, the market cannot resolve; traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon are locked into positions that depend entirely on the Observatory's official measurement.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C. The city's record high for June stands at 36.1°C, set in 1967, though such extremes remain rare. Recent Junes have seen temperatures cluster between 29°C and 31°C as daily highs. The 0% pricing suggests the market has collapsed around a specific temperature band—likely the most probable range given seasonal norms—with traders unwilling to price tail outcomes at any meaningful odds.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of several days, meaning the settlement window closes on 12 June at noon UTC but actual resolution may not occur until mid-to-late June once the Daily Extract is finalised and verified. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly for publication of the relevant data; no external announcements or forecasts will alter the outcome, only the official recorded temperature matters. Seasonal weather patterns and any unusual atmospheric conditions in early June 2026 will determine the actual reading, but the market's current pricing reflects confidence in a narrow outcome band.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.