Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, meaning no conditional tokens have been issued yet—a common state for weather markets more than a year out. Settlement depends on the Observatory publishing its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset, which typically arrives within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 34°C, with historical extremes rarely exceeding 36°C even during heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent patterns: the southwest monsoon dominates from May through September, bringing warm, humid air from the South China Sea. June 2025 saw a peak of 33.9°C; June 2024 reached 34.2°C. These precedents suggest the market will likely settle in the 32–35°C band, though outlier heat events do occur roughly once per decade.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically issued in May, which flag whether the coming summer will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 will influence regional pressure patterns. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with historical comparisons, available on its website; these become actionable once May 2026 data confirms whether the season is tracking hot. No specific announcements drive this market—only the accumulated atmospheric conditions on that single day determine settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.