Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure on that same date at 12:00 UTC—a hard constraint that leaves no room for price discovery once the Observatory publishes its daily extract. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon will need the official reading locked into the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" field before resolution can occur, making this a binary exercise in waiting for data publication rather than forecasting meteorological conditions.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster tightly around seasonal norms. Historical records show the median daily maximum in early June sits near 31°C, with the interquartile range spanning 29–33°C. Extreme readings above 35°C or below 27°C occur in roughly 5% of cases each, though the city's urban heat island effect and occasional early-season tropical systems can push outliers further. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market has attracted minimal liquidity, typical for single-day weather contracts that offer little predictive value beyond climatological baseline.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily extracts with a lag of one to three days, meaning the settlement window's noon UTC closure on 10 June will almost certainly precede data availability. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for publication timing; any delay in releasing the daily extract past the settlement deadline would trigger a "no resolution" state, leaving USDC collateral locked until the contract's dispute period expires. Seasonal weather patterns—including the onset of the southwest monsoon and occasional early tropical cyclones—influence June temperatures, but these broad drivers offer little edge for pricing a single day's maximum.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.