Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory has not yet published the absolute daily maximum temperature for 20 July 2026, leaving the market’s 0% YES probability for any specific range as a reflection of data absence rather than a climatic forecast. Until the “Daily Extract” is finalized and the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” is confirmed, the contract cannot resolve, meaning the current pricing is purely a function of on-chain liquidity mechanics on Polygon, where USDC conditional tokens trade the outcome without underlying event certainty.

Historically, Hong Kong’s July highs typically cluster between 31°C and 34°C, with the 2023 peak reaching 34.2°C and the 2022 record at 33.8°C, suggesting that a 0% probability for any range is statistically anomalous if interpreted as a temperature prediction rather than a data-status indicator. The market’s current state mirrors past instances where settlement was delayed due to pending official releases, not because the event was impossible, highlighting how Polymarket’s pricing often lags behind real-time data availability rather than anticipating meteorological outliers.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily data release schedule, specifically the publication time of the “Daily Extract” for 20 July, which usually occurs within 24–48 hours after the date. A recent update from the Observatory’s open data portal confirms that CSV files for daily maximum temperatures are updated regularly, but the exact timing for July 2026 remains dependent on internal verification processes [1]. The catalyst for price movement will be the official confirmation of the temperature value, not external weather forecasts or media announcements.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.