Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 2 July 2026, measured to one decimal place. On Polymarket today, this contract shows a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, yet the frontrunner is 32°C at 45%, followed by 33°C at 28%[1]. This divergence suggests traders are pricing specific temperature bands rather than a binary event, with the market collectively betting on heat typical of early July under above-normal seasonal conditions[2][3].

Historical July data frames this probability: average highs sit around 31–32°C, with daytime peaks frequently reaching 32°C amid persistent humidity and weak nocturnal cooling[7][9]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 projects normal to above-normal temperatures, reinforcing that 32°C is a statistically plausible outcome rather than an outlier[3]. Traders reading the 0% "YES" price should note it reflects the binary framing, not the absence of heat; the real signal lies in the 45% weight on 32°C.

Key catalysts include the Observatory’s finalisation of the "Daily Extract" for 2 July, which will publish the official "Absolute Daily Max" value[1]. Watch for any updates on ENSO status or regional cloud cover, as these influence daily highs; the latest forecast predicts mainly cloudy skies with light rain patches, potentially moderating peak temperatures[5]. Settlement hinges entirely on this published data, with no resolution possible until the "Daily Extract" is finalised[1]. USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens, so liquidity shifts will track real-time weather updates as the settlement window closes on 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.