Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum in degrees Celsius serving as the sole resolution source. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite numerical consensus runs indicating a high near 33–34°C for that date[1].

Historical July data frames this near-zero probability with caution: the highest monthly maximum recorded between 1885 and 2019 was 35.7°C, while July 2018 saw a mean maximum of 31.8°C[2][6]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 86°F to 93°F (approximately 30°C to 34°C), aligning with the 33–34°C consensus and suggesting the 0% pricing may be overly dismissive of a hot day[3].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Daily Extract” publication, which is the mandatory dependency for market resolution, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional humidity or cloud cover announcements that could alter the peak temperature[9]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, and the market will only resolve once the Observatory’s data is finalized in the official extract, making the timing of that release a critical catalyst for on-chain USDC payouts on Polygon via conditional tokens[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.