Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently assigning no chance that the final Hong Kong Observatory “Absolute Daily Max” for 7 August lands in the YES range before settlement. Because the contract resolves off the Observatory’s published daily extract, the relevant trade is not the headline weather alone but the exact maximum in Celsius, measured to one decimal, once the data is finalised. On Polymarket, buyers and sellers are effectively exchanging USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the payoff depends entirely on the official HKO figure rather than any third-party forecast.

For context, Hong Kong in August is usually hot enough that the upper end of the distribution matters more than the average. Seasonal guides and forecasts cluster daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius, while the Observatory’s own forecast this morning said urban areas could reach about 34°C, with parts of the New Territories a couple of degrees higher and “extremely hot” conditions possible.[2][1] That sits above typical August normals, but still leaves room for the exact daily maximum to fall short of the threshold if cloud, showers, or coastal moderation cap the reading. Comparable August forecasts from major weather services also point to highs mostly in the 30–32°C area, reinforcing that the market is being driven by whether today produces an outlier, not whether it is simply a hot day.[1][9]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s daytime updates, any thunderstorm or squally shower development, and whether the hottest inland stations run a few tenths higher than the urban core before the day is locked in.[3][2] Traders should watch the HKO hourly readings and, later, the final Daily Extract publication, because the market cannot resolve until that official file is posted.[3][10] Hong Kong media also noted the Observatory warning of very hot weather and temperatures of 36°C or above in parts of the New Territories, which is the sort of setup that can move a near-term weather market sharply if conditions hold into the afternoon.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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