Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no value to a Hong Kong Observatory daily maximum that lands in the YES range for 6 August. On Polymarket, that probability is expressed through USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the live price reflects how traders are valuing the chance that the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” print for the day ends up inside the contract’s target band rather than the headline weather conditions themselves.

For context, Hong Kong’s early-August climate is normally very hot: the Hong Kong Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 6 August at a mean maximum of **31.6°C** and mean temperature of **28.9°C**[2]. The Observatory also described August 2024 as “an exceptionally hot August”, with mean daily maximum air temperature of **32.3°C**, a full degree above normal[4]. That matters because the market resolves off the single highest temperature recorded on the day, and Hong Kong can still produce spikes well above the daily mean if sunshine dominates or downslope flow develops. In other words, a low current price does not mean the event is impossible; it means traders are discounting the specific temperature band required by the market.

The main catalysts are operational rather than narrative: the Observatory’s day-of observation cycle, any late-day convective clouds or rain, and the eventual publication of the daily extract on the HKO climate pages, which is the settlement source[1]. The contract cannot resolve until that extract is posted, and the market remains exposed to any final revision in the reported one-decimal Celsius figure. Traders watching the book will usually focus on whether the day’s actual maximum is likely to sit above or below the band boundaries once the Observatory finalises the record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.