Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded on 1 July 2026 at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with the 35°C range at 39% and 36°C at 30%, while the frontrunner remains 32°C at 79%. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for the highest temperature exceeding 35°C appears inconsistent with Guangzhou’s July climatology, where average highs sit near 32°C but 34–35°C days are common, and extremes reaching 39°C have occurred historically[1][2].

Historical cases frame how to read this probability: on 1 July 2004, Guangzhou hit 39.1°C, its all-time record, and July remains the hottest month with average highs around 33°C and peaks up to 36°C[4][7][8]. China also experienced its hottest July on record in recent years, with the highest average temperature since 1961, suggesting a backdrop of intensifying heat that traders should not dismiss[3].

Traders must watch for official heatwave announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre and daily weather bulletins for the Pearl River Delta, as these often precede extreme temperature spikes. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s daily record for the Baiyun station, so any data gaps or sensor recalibrations could alter the outcome. Recent reports confirm July 2026 is tracking as exceptionally hot across southern China, reinforcing the risk that temperatures may breach the 35°C threshold despite current pricing[3][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.