Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the odds of the settlement landing in the YES band are negligible. The event itself is straightforward: the market will resolve against the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 4 August, with the final outcome determined by the Wunderground daily history page and settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens.

The useful comparator is August climatology, not a single daily forecast. Guangzhou’s August highs typically sit around 33–34°C, with some sources showing daily highs nearer 31–33°C and frequent rain, which can cap the afternoon peak but does not prevent warm readings if showers pass early. Recent forecast snapshots for early August point to highs in the low 30s Celsius, while airport observations also show the station can sit around 30°C even outside peak heating hours, so the main question is not whether it gets hot, but whether it reaches the specific range the market is attached to. That makes a 0% quote consistent only if the contract’s YES threshold is set well above the expected daily maximum.

Traders should watch the short-range forecast updates, especially rain timing, cloud cover and any typhoon-related disruption in southern China, because these are the factors most likely to suppress or lift the day’s peak. Guangzhou’s official and third-party forecasts for 4 August point to showers or heavy rain, and the Hong Kong Government’s city bulletin has already shown Guangzhou with a 25–31°C range and rain in a recent update, which supports a middling temperature ceiling rather than an extreme heat spike. The key Polymarket mechanic is simply whether the airport station’s highest printed reading on Wunderground clears the contract’s target band before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.