Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 17 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport determining settlement. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical listing issue or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's maximum. Traders are holding USDC-denominated conditional tokens that resolve to full value only if the recorded high falls within their selected range; all other positions expire worthless.

Historical August data from Baiyun station shows consistent peaks between 33–36°C during mid-month, with occasional excursions to 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed readings to 38.9°C, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Current 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market may not yet reflect typical August conditions for Guangzhou, or traders are awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts before committing capital to specific temperature bands.

The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in June and July; their mid-summer forecast for Guangzhou will be the primary catalyst for repricing. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July and early August, as moisture and wind patterns significantly influence daily maxima. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, meaning traders must verify the exact station data source rather than relying on rounded figures from weather apps or news reports.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.