Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to an expectation of cooler conditions or data anomalies. This stark pricing contrasts with AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for Love Field, which predicts daily highs between 96°F and 100°F, suggesting the market may be misreading the seasonal norm or reacting to a specific resolution constraint [2].

Historical cases frame this probability: in 2026, Dallas reached 97°F on 2 June, the year’s peak so far, while a similar June 14 market resolved to 84–85°F, well below the seasonal average [1][8]. The 0% pricing may reflect a trader consensus that the 28th will be unusually cool, perhaps influenced by the 83°F high recorded on 25 June, which was significantly below the historic average of 94.2°F [5]. Such deviations from the norm have previously driven extreme market pricing in conditional token pools on Polygon, where USDC liquidity reacts sharply to weather data surprises.

Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s real-time updates for KDAL, as the settlement depends on Wunderground’s official daily high, which may lag or differ from on-site sensors [3]. A key catalyst is the upcoming heat advisory schedule from the Texas Department of Health, which could signal a temperature spike if issued before 28 June; no such advisory has been announced yet, but recent climate reports note a 15% increase in extreme heat days across the Southwest this month [8]. The resolution source will only publish once the first data point for 28 June is available, meaning any delay in Wunderground’s feed could invalidate the market’s current pricing logic.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.