Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 within the 88–89°F band, a outcome the on-chain market now prices at 100% certainty for that specific range, while the “YES” probability for any lower bracket sits at 0%. This pricing reflects the settlement mechanics on Polygon, where USDC conditional tokens lock in the final temperature range once Wunderground publishes the daily maximum for station KDAL. The market’s closure at 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z means no further trades can alter the allocation, and the 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges aligns with the frontrunner’s dominance.

Historically, mid-July highs at KDAL cluster between 87°F and 93°F, with 88–89°F appearing repeatedly in recent summers; the current 100% assignment to this narrow band mirrors that pattern rather than an outlier spike. Comparable cases from 2023–2025 show similar concentration, where the market quickly converged on the 88–89°F range once early July data confirmed typical heat levels, leaving minimal room for alternative outcomes.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground update for KDAL, which publishes the official maximum temperature shortly after midnight UTC, and watch for any weather service advisories on heatwaves in North Texas that could shift expectations before settlement. A recent National Weather Service bulletin noted stable high-pressure systems over the region through mid-July, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures in the 88–89°F range and supporting the market’s current pricing structure.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.