Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty among traders or a technical artefact in how conditional tokens are being valued on Polygon. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on the settlement date itself.

Dallas summer temperatures typically peak between 95°F and 100°F in mid-July, based on three decades of Love Field records. The station has recorded highs exceeding 105°F on roughly one in every four July days since 1990, though such extremes cluster during heat domes rather than occurring uniformly. The flatness of current market odds suggests traders are either waiting for seasonal forecasts to materialise or treating this as a low-liquidity contract where conditional token mechanics create pricing inefficiencies rather than genuine probability estimates.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with meaningful confidence intervals arriving five to seven days before 13 July. Any significant heat advisory or excessive heat warning for the Dallas–Fort Worth region in early July would likely shift trader positioning. Traders should monitor upper-level ridge development and soil moisture conditions in late June, as these drive whether mid-July heat reaches typical seasonal norms or breaks into the 100°F+ territory where historical frequency becomes material to range selection.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.