Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is forecast to hit highs between 96°F and 102°F on 12 July 2026, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a lower-temperature outcome a stark mispricing of seasonal reality [2]. On Polymarket, traders are locking USDC into conditional tokens on the Polygon network, yet the market’s pricing suggests an event that contradicts every July heat model for North Texas.

Historical July data for Dallas Love Field consistently shows daily highs exceeding 95°F, with recent years recording peaks well above 100°F during mid-month heatwaves [2]. The 0% YES probability implies a near-zero chance of the temperature falling into the lowest bracket, which aligns with the fact that July in Dallas is one of the hottest months nationally; comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show no recorded July 12 highs below 90°F at KDAL, reinforcing that the market is ignoring basic climatology [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KDAL, particularly the 50% chance of thunderstorms forecast for the night of 11 July, which could temporarily suppress daytime highs but rarely drop them below 90°F [1]. While no official announcement has altered the forecast, the AccuWeather monthly model remains the primary dependency for settlement, and any deviation from its 96–102°F range would signal a data anomaly rather than a market opportunity [2]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will lock the official high at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, closing the window for on-chain adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.