Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing **0% YES** for the Dallas temperature outcome, so the on-chain market on Polygon is already treating the relevant USDC-denominated conditional tokens as effectively settled in favour of a different range. The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 9 August 2026, and the exchange’s own rules make Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table the decisive source rather than the day’s summary high/low. Polymarket also says revisions can be reflected until the first datapoint for the following date is published, which means traders are really positioning around the finalised historical record, not the live forecast. [3][8]

For context, the broader Dallas weather picture points to a very hot early-August environment. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook shows temperatures around **100–101°F** on 8–10 August, while the National Weather Service’s climate normals for Dallas/Fort Worth put today’s typical maximum at **97°F** and the record at **108°F**. That sort of backdrop helps explain why the market’s pricing has clustered away from the lower bands: in summer Texas heat, the meaningful question is often not whether it gets hot, but whether the day lands in the upper 90s or crosses 100°F. [1][4]

A trader watching the close should focus on the Weather Underground history page for KDAL, because the contract resolves from the station’s final published observations once the next day’s first datapoint appears. The key dependency is therefore not a forecast update but the completion of the historical table, which is the exact source Polymarket cites for settlement. Broader public weather pages, including NWS forecasts and city summary pages, can help frame expectations, but they do not control resolution if they diverge from Weather Underground’s recorded observations. [3][7][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.