Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either a technical issue with the contract or extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately resolve. Settlement hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when station readings fluctuate throughout the day.

Chongqing's August climate provides historical grounding for traders. The city consistently ranks among China's hottest urban centres, with August averages around 29–30°C and extremes regularly exceeding 35°C. The 2022 heatwave saw temperatures peak at 40–41°C across multiple days in August, whilst 2020 recorded similar intensity. These precedents suggest the market's zero probability assignment undervalues the likelihood of higher temperature bands resolving. Weather Underground's station data at the airport, which sits in the Jiangbei district, typically aligns with official meteorological records but occasionally diverges due to sensor placement and timing of peak readings.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which will indicate whether monsoon patterns or high-pressure systems dominate that week. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months influence regional heat distribution. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, creating a hard deadline; any delays in Weather Underground's data publication could affect resolution timing. Polygon-based conditional tokens will reflect real-time probability shifts as August approaches and meteorological models gain precision.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.