Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu airport-temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating a top-end June reading as effectively off the table for now. The event resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground history data, and the trade mechanics are the usual Polymarket structure: USDC collateral on Polygon, with conditional tokens paying out according to the resolved temperature band.

That zero price sits against a climate pattern that is warm but not usually extreme in Chengdu in June. June daily highs are typically around the low-30s Celsius, with average highs near 28–34°C and only occasional spikes above 35°C, while historical June guidance says hot spells can still reach the mid-to-high 30s in some years.[2][3][5] For a temperature-range market, the key point is not whether Chengdu is generally hot, but whether the airport station prints a one-day maximum high enough to move into a higher bracket; yesterday’s similar Polymarket Chengdu contract finished at “No”, which also underlines how narrowly these ranges can miss the upper outcomes.[1]

The main catalysts are straightforward weather inputs rather than policy or earnings-style events: synoptic heat, humidity, cloud cover, and any rain or thunderstorm activity that suppresses daytime maxima. Traders should watch the short-range forecast for Chengdu, especially any mid-afternoon heat spike or convective cloud build-up, because the market resolves on the station’s recorded high rather than a city-wide average; Wunderground lists Chengdu Shuangliu Intl Airport as the reference station for the history page.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.