Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Chengdu temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the airport station will not record a day high in the target range for 24 July. The position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so traders are not exposed to the weather itself, only to the final Wunderground reading for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station.

That 0% level is easy to read against Chengdu’s July climate, which is hot, humid and often rainy rather than extreme. Typical July highs are around 30°C, with averages near 25°C and frequent rainfall, while near-term forecasts in the current run show highs in the mid-30s °C and a meaningful chance of rain.[4][1][3] On that basis, a very high daytime maximum is possible, but the market price suggests traders think the exact temperature band required for a YES resolution is still unlikely.

For a trader, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast evolution, any afternoon showers, and the timing of the airport station’s eventual daily peak, which can land before or after brief clearing or heating spells. BBC Weather currently shows 24°C in Chengdu with humidity at 74%, while Met Office guidance flags a 40% rain chance later in the day, both of which matter because cloud cover and precipitation can cap the high.[2][3] The practical check is the Wunderground history page after the close of the settlement window, since the market only resolves on that recorded maximum rather than forecast ranges.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.