Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 is being priced by the market as almost certainly reaching 38°C, with the crowd assigning a 100% probability to that specific outcome while the “YES” side for any other range sits at 0% [1]. This reflects a near-total consensus among traders that the day will hit that peak, locking the contract into a single temperature bracket before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z.

Historically, July in Chengdu is one of the hottest months, with average highs often exceeding 35°C and frequent spikes into the 37–39°C range during heatwaves, particularly in the Shuangliu district where the airport station is located [2][3]. The current 100% pricing for 38°C aligns with past records where mid-July temperatures in the city have consistently breached 37°C, making lower ranges like “34°C or below” statistically improbable and thus priced at 0% [1].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, as this is the official resolution source [1]. Any sudden shift in local weather forecasts—such as unexpected rain or cloud cover from the regional rainy season—could challenge the 38°C consensus, though current climate data suggests such disruptions are rare in late July [3]. Watch for real-time updates on the Polygon chain, where USDC liquidity and conditional token positions will adjust if new meteorological data emerges before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.