Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat today as traders assess the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport on 11 July 2026. The contract currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being queried, with the frontrunner outcome being 34°C at 27% probability and 35°C at 22% [1]. This pricing aligns with historical July climatology where average daily maxima sit near 30–32°C, though recent years show a trend of more frequent readings exceeding 35°C due to intensifying heatwaves [2].

Historical data frames the current probability as a bet against extreme outliers rather than typical summer conditions. While July is the hottest month with an average high of 85°F (approx. 29.4°C), the city has recorded peaks up to 38°C, with the hottest day hitting 38.6°C in August 2022 [4][10]. The tight ensemble spreads in global models currently favour the 32–34°C band, suggesting traders view a 35°C+ spike as less likely than a standard hot day [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as cloud cover and humidity shifts can rapidly alter peak temperatures [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 11 July 2026, meaning the final USDC payout on Polygon depends entirely on the single highest Celsius reading logged before that deadline [1]. Conditional token liquidity remains thin on the extreme high ranges, so significant price movements will likely hinge on the first official hourly temperature report posted later today.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.