Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Chengdu temperature contract pinned at 0% YES today, which leaves the market pricing almost no chance that the airport station’s recorded high lands in the selected Celsius band before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. The underlying event is straightforward: the highest temperature in the Daily Observations table for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 17 August is what counts, not the summary Day High & Low figure.

That 0% print is hard to reconcile with late-August norms in Chengdu, where August highs at the airport commonly sit in the low 30s Celsius and the month is typically warm, humid and frequently unsettled. Forecasts published for 17 August point to highs around 31-34°C, with several sources also flagging showers or rain, which matters because cloud and precipitation can cap the day’s maximum and narrow the intraday range. Comparable August cases at the airport usually resolve into mid- to high-20s or low-30s bands rather than extreme values, so the present price implies traders see either a very specific band mismatch or a stale book rather than a broad weather surprise.

For the near term, the main catalysts are the day-ahead and same-day temperature updates for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, especially any shift in rain timing, cloud cover or humidity around the late-morning local window before settlement. Traders should also watch for forecast revisions from weather providers and for any operational reporting changes at the station, because the contract resolves on the observations table in USDC-settled Polygon conditional tokens, so the final printed maximum is what matters, not the headline summary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.