Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest temperature on 11 August 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently prices this at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity. On Polygon, traders are holding conditional tokens representing different temperature brackets, with USDC settlement tied to whichever range captures the actual daily high.

August in Chengdu typically sees peak summer heat, with historical highs regularly exceeding 38°C during mid-August. The city's inland location in Sichuan Province and surrounding topography create a heat-trapping effect; records from 2013, 2017, and 2022 all logged temperatures above 39°C in early-to-mid August. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests either the market has resolved prematurely, no liquidity exists at current price levels, or traders are awaiting Weather Underground's exact range definitions before committing capital.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks for major cities. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late summer can occasionally suppress temperatures across central China, though August typically remains dry in Chengdu. The specific resolution dependency on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative sources like CMA or local airport records—means discrepancies between reporting standards could affect settlement, making source verification critical before the 12:00 UTC window closes on 11 August.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.