Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will be measured and reported through Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting the conditional token structure on Polygon where USDC collateral backs each range contract. This extreme pricing suggests traders are either heavily concentrated in alternative temperature bands or the market has yet to attract meaningful liquidity for this specific settlement window.

Busan's August climate presents a narrow historical band for comparison. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings toward 35°C in recent years. The 2018 heat wave saw several Korean coastal cities record temperatures above 33°C during similar periods. Current market pricing at zero suggests traders expect the actual high to fall outside whatever upper threshold this particular range contract covers, though without visibility on the exact temperature bands offered, the zero probability may simply reflect a contract positioned at an implausibly high ceiling.

South Korea's meteorological forecasting accuracy improves significantly within two weeks of the target date, and the Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues detailed heat advisories by early August. Traders should monitor late-July weather pattern developments—particularly any ridge of high pressure positioning over the Korean peninsula—as these drive August temperature outcomes. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency worth noting, as station-specific readings occasionally diverge from broader regional reports.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.