Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's weather on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Gimhae International Airport Station, with the highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table determining settlement. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. On Polygon, traders are holding conditional tokens representing different temperature ranges, with USDC collateral backing positions that will resolve to either full value or zero depending on which band captures the actual high.

August temperatures in Busan historically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The city's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland Korean regions, though the past decade has seen increased frequency of days exceeding 30°C during mid-August. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market may be awaiting historical data entry or experiencing a technical issue, as even conservative temperature bands should carry non-zero probability given natural variation.

Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, as these typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for daily highs. Pacific typhoon activity in late summer occasionally disrupts Korean weather patterns, potentially lowering temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates a minor basis risk; traders should verify historical consistency between these data sources at Gimhae station before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.