Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The market currently prices this event at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders are either awaiting settlement window closure or treating this as a technical placeholder. On Polymarket, positions are denominated in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens resolving to whichever temperature bracket contains the actual high.

Early June in Beijing typically falls within the transition from late spring to early summer, with historical highs clustering between 28°C and 35°C depending on weather patterns. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects the market's recent creation or low liquidity rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Comparable June temperature markets in northern China have resolved across a wide band, with 2023 and 2024 data showing variability driven by monsoon onset timing and high-pressure system positioning.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 4 June, alongside broader East Asian weather pattern shifts. The North Pacific subtropical high's westward extension typically influences Beijing's early-June temperatures; any significant deviation from seasonal norms would emerge in five-day forecasts by late May. Current atmospheric indices suggest no exceptional heat event is anticipated, though spring-to-summer transition periods remain inherently volatile for temperature prediction at this lead time.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.