Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with the frontrunner outcome at 34°C holding a 100% probability, while the crowd-implied chance for any temperature below 27°C sits at 0%. This stark pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where USDC liquidity flows decisively toward the upper end of the temperature range, treating the event as a near-certainty for extreme heat.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as consistent with Beijing’s late-June climate patterns, where daily highs typically exceed 30°C and frequently reach 35°C or more. Weather Spark notes that June highs in Beijing rarely fall below 73°F (23°C) but often exceed 96°F (36°C), while Travel China Guide confirms about ten days per month hit 35°C. A recent Reuters report from 2023 documented Beijing smashing a June record at 41.1°C, and a 2024 heatwave pushed temperatures to 106°F (41.1°C), reinforcing that extreme heat is the norm, not the outlier.

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily heatwave advisories and the Wunderground settlement feed, which will publish the official 28 June high at 12:00 UTC. The resolution source is explicitly tied to Wunderground’s history page for the ZBAA station, meaning any discrepancy between forecast models and the recorded data could shift conditional token valuations. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-28T12:00:00Z, the market’s 100% confidence in 34°C hinges entirely on this single data point, leaving no room for ambiguity in the on-chain outcome.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.