Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured at Capital International Airport Station. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature bands at 0% implied probability across the board, a technical artefact of how conditional tokens settle when no traders have yet committed capital. This reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that temperatures won't be recorded—the settlement mechanism simply awaits the first meaningful position.

Beijing's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical data from Wunderground showing median highs around 28–30°C for mid-June over the past two decades. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once every three to five years during this period, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but possible during unseasonal cold snaps or after rain systems. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any expectation of anomalous conditions; traders typically wait for seasonal forecasts to crystallise before deploying USDC on Polygon.

Meaningful price discovery will depend on medium-range weather models issued in early June 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international forecast centres. Traders should monitor whether subtropical high-pressure systems establish over northern China—a pattern that typically drives temperatures into the 32–36°C band—or whether monsoon moisture and cloud cover cap highs in the 24–28°C range. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 15 June, giving traders roughly six hours after local sunrise to react to actual morning conditions before final resolution against Wunderground's recorded data.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.