Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak heat recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 5 July 2026, a date that historically sits within the city’s hottest and wettest month. Current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting the market believes the temperature will not fall into the specific range being wagered on, likely a low threshold such as 30°C. This stands in stark contrast to historical data where July daytime temperatures typically range from 25°C to 33°C, with maximums often reaching 38°C or higher[1]. In 2024, the July high hit 37°C, and about two-thirds of July days exceed 31°C, making a sub-30°C peak highly improbable for this period[2].

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather schedules for the Beijing region, particularly any announcements regarding thunderstorms or heavy rainfall, which are concentrated in July and August and could temporarily suppress peak temperatures[2]. While the market currently prices the contract at 0% on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics allow for rapid re-pricing if new meteorological data emerges. Recent reports of extreme weather events across China in May 2026, including record-breaking heatwaves, indicate a volatile climate pattern that could persist into July, potentially pushing highs well above 35°C[10]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the official high for all times on the day, so any sudden heat spikes before midday will directly determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.