Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Beijing’s Capital International Airport will record a peak temperature of 35°C or higher on 4 July 2026. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% on the USDC/Polygon chain, implying the crowd sees no chance of hitting that threshold. Yet historical data frames a different picture: July in Beijing typically sees daily highs around 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 78°F (25.6°C) or exceeding 96°F (35.6°C)[2]. In 2023, the city reached 40°C, and in 2010, it hit 42.1°C on 5 July—just one day after the target date[3][8]. Even in late June 2026, temperatures reached 95°F (35°C) on 27 June, suggesting the heatwave season is already active[5].

Traders should monitor China’s National Climate Center announcements and local heatwave advisories, as authorities have previously urged outdoor limits during extreme heat[7]. A recent Reuters report noted Beijing’s 41.1°C spike in June 2023, marking its second-highest temperature ever and underscoring the volatility of summer peaks[3]. The resolution hinges on Wunderground’s recorded daily maximum for the airport station, with conditional tokens locking in USDC payouts based on that single data point. Watch for scheduled weather bulletins from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and any updates on regional humidity, which can amplify perceived temperatures. The on-chain mechanics mean liquidity is thin, and price swings may reflect late-breaking forecasts more than historical averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.