Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s peak heat on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that day’s highest temperature. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the outcome will fall outside the selected range, though the specific range isn’t defined in the prompt. Traders on Polygon settle in USDC using conditional tokens, where liquidity and slippage directly impact entry costs as the settlement window closes at 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z.

Historically, Beijing’s July highs at ZBAA often exceed 35°C, with 2023 and 2024 both recording peaks near 38°C during mid-July heatwaves. A 0% probability for any specific range is unusual unless the range is implausibly low (e.g., below 20°C) or the market lacks liquidity. Comparable cases show that early July pricing can be volatile, but by mid-July, temperature forecasts stabilise, making extreme outliers less likely unless a sudden atmospheric shift occurs.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for ZBAA, as these are the official resolution sources. A recent heatwave alert from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau on 18 July 2026 warns of sustained high temperatures through 21 July, suggesting the peak could reach 37–39°C. Any deviation from this range—such as a sudden rain event or cloud cover—would be the key catalyst for probability shifts before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.