Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” outcome for any range below 28°C at 0%, reflecting the near-certainty that summer heat will push readings well into the 30s. The market’s frontrunner is 34°C at 42%, followed by 33°C at 31%, aligning with July climatology where average highs sit near 31–32°C and occasional spikes reach 35°C or higher[1][5].

Historical patterns frame this pricing: July is Beijing’s hottest month, with average highs of 88°F (31.1°C) and frequent excursions above 35°C during heatwaves[7]. Extreme cases include 40°C in July 2023 and a record June 2023 peak of 41.1°C, the city’s second-highest ever[2][3]. Such outliers show that while 34°C is the consensus, temperatures can breach 40°C under sustained high-pressure systems, making lower ranges like “below 28°C” implausible.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration heatwave advisories and the 5–7 day forecast from the Beijing Weather Centre, which often issues warnings ahead of extreme days. Recent coverage notes Beijing’s vulnerability to returning heatwaves in late June 2023, with humidity amplifying perceived intensity[3]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions settle in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, with no oracle delay beyond Wunderground’s daily update at 12:00Z on 13 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.