Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record its daily maximum in degrees Celsius. The crowd currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered in this contract. This pricing reflects a market consensus that the forecasted highs, which typically hover around 32°C to 37°C in mid-July, will not breach the threshold required for a YES resolution.

Historical data frames this probability as rational rather than speculative. In 2023, Beijing reached 40°C during the month, yet the all-time record of 41.9°C occurred on 24 July 1999, not on 11 July [1][2]. Average daily highs in mid-July rarely exceed 36°C, with the month’s peak average occurring later on 17 July [3]. The 0% probability suggests traders recognise that while heatwaves are common, the specific range in this contract likely targets temperatures above 40°C, which are statistically improbable for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history for ZBAA as the settlement clock ticks toward 2026-07-11T12:00:00Z, since this is the definitive resolution source. No immediate weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency rests entirely on the real-time upload of the station’s maximum reading. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity providers can exit before the 12:00 UTC deadline if the live temperature data shifts the implied probability away from the current 0% stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.