Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical lag in crowd assessment. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once the historical record is confirmed post-event.

August in Beijing typically peaks between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The city experienced 40.6°C on 16 July 2022 and 39.9°C on 20 July 2023, establishing that extreme readings are plausible but not routine for late August. Historical data from 2015–2024 shows 21 August highs clustering around 29–31°C, with only three instances exceeding 34°C in that decade. This baseline suggests the market's current zero probability on higher ranges may reflect seasonal norms rather than genuine impossibility.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically project ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could drive moisture and convection into northern China, potentially suppressing temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, a stalled high-pressure system would elevate readings. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Beijing Capital International Airport Station data; discrepancies between that source and other Beijing weather stations (Daxing, urban monitors) are immaterial under the stated terms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.